Research / Understanding uncertainty
Start with the world.
Then build the model.
A market price is a view of what might happen. Our work starts with the underlying question: what makes that outcome more or less likely?
01 / Fundamental modelling
More than a pattern
in the data.
Fundamental research asks how a system works before deciding how to represent it. Which inputs drive the outcome? Which relationships hold up? What would make the model wrong?
In financial markets, those questions concern economic mechanisms and the information reflected in prices. In sports prediction markets, they concern performance, the state of an event, and how probabilities change as it unfolds.
The domain changes. The need for careful assumptions, clean observations, and honest validation does not.
02 / A connected view
Explore the disciplinesUnderstand what drives the outcome.
Start with the underlying process. Identify the variables that matter, model their relationships, and ask how much uncertainty remains.
Respect the information boundary.
Evaluate a decision using only what could have been known at the time. Treat timestamps, revisions, and data leakage as research questions.
Test the uncertainty.
Look beyond an attractive backtest. Examine calibration, sensitivity, changing conditions, and the cases in which a model fails.
Include the real world.
Account for liquidity, costs, latency, and risk. An interesting forecast and an executable decision are different stages of the work.
For the curious. For the exacting.
There are harder problems
worth working on.
Bring your questions, your craft, and a different way of seeing things.
Build with us